Thejakartatimes – Which political party ended up being No. 1 and determine the political landscape of Indonesia after the presidential election and 2019 simultaneously? Which party was thrown off because it did not qualify (PT) 4 percent?
The prediction of election result is a combination of scientific method and art of reading situation. Without a scientific method, it’s a pseudo prediction. Moreover, science has reached that stage. Voter behavior has been the study of thousands of scientific research since fifty years ago.
But the future is never short of surprises. Reality is always richer than the construction of science. In the case of science not yet arrived, something outside science works. For simplicity, something beyond that science we call it art.
Of course the art did not come suddenly from the sky. Then he landed on the head of a very layman. Art is another name of intensity and flying hours. Only to those who are very experienced and intensive, in a profession, have that art. Let’s say this is a kind of professional instinct.
Only with a combination of scientific and artistic principles due to the length of flight hours, a person or institution can reliably make responsible predictions.
This January 2018, LSI Denny JA made predictions. PDIP and Golkar will compete for party position number one in 2019 later. But Gerindra loomed and became a dark horse to snatch the same number one.
LSI Denny JA has been very used to making predictions. MURI record has been obtained because of its predictions since the first direct election in 2004, (even advertised in the newspaper before the event), 13 times, a total of 100 percent occurred.
Public can also check in google last event. A year before the election of DKI. All the survey agencies say Ahok will win a landslide, even one round. LSI Denny JA, the only one that is different. A year before the election of Jakarta, I have written: Ahok strong, But can be defeated.
Earlier in the 2009 Presidential Election, 1-2 months before the presidential election, LSI Denny JA predicts SBY will win ONE ROUND COVER. Back LSI is criticized. But again proved.
What makes LSI Denny JA different? Certainly not on the ability of scientific method. The explanation is in the art of predicting the effects of flight time, intensity, and sensitivity. He is more able to read behind numbers, and events afterwards.
Below, five political party issues in the Age of Now. These five issues will be the variables that color Indonesian politics, from today until the results of the 2019 election and presidential election are completed.
LSI Denny JA’s latest survey found that there are 5 (five) interesting party issues.
First Issue, only 2 (two) political parties that get the current support (elektabilitas) above the vote in the legislative elections 2014.
Both parties are PDIP and Golkar Party. Currently, PDIP elektabilitas equal to 22.2%, greater than the acquisition of its voice in election 2014 that is 18.95%. Elektabilitas Golkar Party by 15.5%, greater than the vote in the 2014 election of 14.75%. Other party electability averaged below its vote in the 2014 election.
For the first time, Golkar was able to gain support above its vote in the 2014 election. In previous surveys, the elec- tiveness of the Golkar party has declined. Especially when the case of E ID card sticking out and involving Setya Novanto, former chairman of the Golkar Party.
After the change of leadership, elektabilitas Golkar party began to improve and show an upward trend. In the LSI Denny JA survey, August 2017, the elec- tricity of the Golkar party was 11.6%, ranked third under Gerindra party. In December 2017, Golkar’s elektabilitas rose to 13.8%, and January 2018 rose again to 15.5%.
Meanwhile, PDIP elektabilitas actually decreased. In the LSI Denny JA survey, August 2017, PDIP elektabilitas was at 28.3%. Increases quite a lot from the vote in 2014 election. In December 2017, PDIP elektabilitas actually decreased at 22.7%. And now, January 2018, PDIP elektabilitas equal to 22.2%.
Why does PDIP decline? And why did the Golkar party rise? There are three reasons to explain.
First, voters who previously “fled” to other parties, especially PDIP, returned to the “pen” of Golkar. The voter migration between PDI-P and Golkar can occur because both parties have the same party platform that is nationalist, and also has the same traditional support base of the lower middle voters (wong cilik).
Second, the new chairman of the Golkar party, Airlangga Hartarto gave new hope for the Golkar party. Airlangga is impressively clean and has the integrity to rebuild the party’s credibility which was previously hit by the negative issue of E ID card.
Third, 3 (three) pro-people programs campaigned by the Gokar party under the leadership of Airlangga Hartarto are widely favored by voters. The three pro-people programs are on average above 80% voter level. These three pro-people programs are also attracting the sympathy of the voters.
Golkar Party has the potential to become the main contender of PDI-P in winning the 2019 election. However, this condition is very dependent on Golkar itself. Golkar’s efforts to rebrand the party with a focus on a program that has an electoral appeal and a new chairman image will help boost the party’s vote.
Before continuing with four other issues, we present first the research methods and the issues surrounding them.
This national survey is a regular national survey of LSI Denny JA. Respondents of 1200 were selected based on multi stage random sampling. Interviews with respondents were conducted simultaneously in 34 provinces from 7 to 14 January 2018.
The survey was self-financed as part of LSI Denny JA’s public services. Margin of error plus minus 2.9 percent. Surveys are complemented by qualitative research such as FGD, media analysis, and depth interviews of resource persons.
Second issue, there are 3 (three) top parties in the 2019 election. Top parties are parties that get support above 10%. The LSI Denny JA Survey, January 2018, showed that only 3 parties earned support above 10% and were therefore called the top parties.
The three parties are PDIP, Golkar Party, and Gerindra Party. And these three parties, consistently gained support above 10% in the last 5 Surevi LSI Denny JA.
Gerindra Party has a chance to be ranked 2 or even become the winner of the election, if Prabowo Subianto succeed as a candidate or vice president. Factor figures are still strong influence boost party votes.
Gerindra’s association with Prabowo is very strong. So the more Prabowo accepted or strengthened, the greater the chances Gerindra obtain its electoral effect.
In 2009, SBY managed to boost the new Democratic party to be number one. It’s not because of the democratic party. But when it’s strong figure of SBY is able mengkatrol party. Prabowo can have the same effect if he succeeds in becoming a very strong president.
The third issue, the PKB and the Democrats compete in the No.4 position. Surveys show the current election of Democrats at 6.2%. While PKB is 6.0%. The elektabilitas difference between the two parties is only a matter of zero point. In a number of previous LSI surveys also showed both parties compete and salip each other in ranks 4 and 5.
On the issue, currently PKB is slightly more benefited with Islamic issues that tend to rise ahead of elections and elections. However, if the Democrat Party finds new issues that arouse the party’s chances above the PKB is also big.Manuver Muhaimin (PKB) and AHY (Democrat) as a candidate / vice presidential election in 2019 will also affect the elektabilitas of both parties.
The fourth issue, 5 (five) other old parties not yet secure pass Parliamentary threshold (PT). PT in 2019 election has been set at 4%. If referring to LSI Denny JA survey, January 2018, then PPP, Nasdem, PAN, PKS and Hanura are still in unsafe position to pass PT. Acquisition of support on average still below 4% (except Nasdem).
Nasdem in this survey, gained support of 4.2%. But because the error margin of this survey is 2.9%, then Nasdem also certainly not safe from the minimum limit of PT 4%.
Of the 5 old parties that have not secured escaped PT, Hanura is in a more critical condition. In the last three LSI Denny JA surveys, Hanura elektabilitas always under 4%, even below 2%.
This means that the Hanura party is threatened to be thrown from parliament, and into the category of small parties, because it gains support below 2%.
The dualism of the current chairman in Hanura can also aggravate Hanura’s credibility and consolidation efforts in the face of elections. Hanura needs a strong new issue and the support of figures or figures who have an electoral appeal to save the party.
Fifth Issue, Perindo leads a new party and a small party. As a new party, Perindo has enough voter support. In the January 2010 survey, Perindo’s elektabilitas was 3.0%. The acquisition of this support is much better than the old parties like PKPI and the United Nations.
Even in this survey, Hanura as a party which in the previous election successfully entered parliament, elektabilitasnya under Perindo. Another new PSI party has support under 2%. PKPI and the UN also get support below 2%.
Why Perindo as a new party can attract voter support?
First, because of the massive public expose factor. Perindo’s party actively and intensively conducts Perindo’s introduction campaign in various mass media and social media.
Second, with strong funding support, Perindo is also actively conducting support.
The new party as well as the old party of the bottom board, if they want to compete and pass parliament, need the issue and program “big bang” campaigned actively so as to attract voters sympathy.
In addition, these parties must have strong and popular figures that can be a magnet for voters to vote for their party. The strength of the magnetic figure will determine the high level of the party’s rating.
The political year has arrived. A shift in party support will occur. Sinerji, performance, program and problems that befell its board, will become the new landscape of Indonesian politics.
Periodically LSI will photograph the dynamics of voter behavior. If there were no big events, no new figures sticking out like meteors, the 2019 situation has not changed much from today. But Indonesian politics never lack surprise. It is the surprise and the unpredictability that makes politics important. also sexy. (Thejakartatimes/EOS/Source: Suara Pembaruan)
Editor: Elvis Sendouw